Social media, artificial intelligence, and a sharp decline in birth rates — these are the three phenomena that, according to INESS analyst Martin Vlachynský, fundamentally distinguish the present from the past. And although today’s world may seem chaotic, Vlachynský points out that it is not more dramatic than periods we’ve already lived through in history. The difference lies in how intensely and instantly we perceive events.
“It’s very easy to fall into the belief that our moment in history is uniquely exceptional — whether in a good or bad way. Right now, I see three phenomena that fundamentally set us apart from the past: social media, AI, and a sharp drop in birth rates. But for the next generation, such a world may be a matter of course, and they’ll see it as ‘normal.’”
From the “end of history” to the return of geopolitics
The last three decades have been relatively peaceful in the Western world. Martin Vlachynský admits that he, too, once believed the world was heading toward lasting peace and growth:
“I myself was fooled by the illusion of the ‘end of history.’ We experienced 30 years of economic prosperity and geopolitical stability. I’m not saying those times are definitively over, but the end of that era now seems more than possible.”
As he explains, today’s global chessboard is dominated by the United States and China. He sees Russia as a country with limited power — more military than economic.
“There are only two superpowers in the world: the USA and China. Russia has a GDP the size of Italy’s, and the failure in Ukraine has exposed its low capacity to project power. Unfortunately, I can’t even include the EU on that list.”
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Europe as a geopolitically dysfunctional diant
According to Martin Vlachynský, the European Union has failed to transform its economic and cultural potential into geopolitical power. Its policies, he says, are often ineffective and unprepared to face new challenges.
“Europe never really gave itself a proper chance. The last 30 years have been marked by growing bureaucracy, flawed energy and green policies, and the building of a large welfare state for both people and businesses — one that is financially unsustainable in the face of a demographic crisis.”
Even Eastern European countries, which could offer fresh momentum, are hitting their limits. And Slovakia, Vlachynský believes, holds little weight in this regard:
“I’ve never seen Slovakia as a significant regional player. Just look at voter turnout in the European elections and the European agendas of political parties — in many cases, they don’t even exist.”
Deglobalization: Reality or just another trend?
Although deglobalization has been a common topic in recent years, Martin Vlachynský points out that no real shift has occurred so far. Efforts to separate supply chains are running up against economic realities:
“Not yet — no fundamental change has taken place. The benefits of globalization are enormous, and when push comes to shove, very few are willing to give them up. Trump’s tariff policy was a major attempt to make a fundamental shift, but after the first few months, it’s starting to look more like a sparkler than a detonator.”
Conflicts as Convenient Excuses
The war in Ukraine, tensions in Asia and the Middle East — while these are serious events, they don’t have much impact on the average European, according to Vlachynský. Politicians, however, often use them as convenient excuses:
“In fact, we feel almost no direct impact, which is also why the European response is so muted. For many politicians, the war in Ukraine serves as a convenient proxy issue to cover up their own poor decisions in fiscal, energy, or economic policy.”
“We keep dealing with the same problems”
Digital, green, or energy transformation — these terms have become part of every political speech. However, Vlachynský is skeptical about them:
“I’m a bit tired of these terms. What exactly is ‘digital transformation’? Computers have been around for 50 years and the internet for 30. We keep dealing with the same problems — flawed actions by the state and the EU — we just put different labels on them to make them sound better.”
According to him, the EU should address the fight against climate change sensibly and also consider the costs for households and businesses:
“Every additional percentage point by which the EU pushes carbon targets means a greater economic burden on citizens and companies, but a diminishing real effect on the global climate.”
The coming years? Higher taxes and less freedom
According to Vlachynský, as a society we have “overspent” 20 years of growth. Now comes a period when we will have to correct this mistake — mainly through higher taxes and austerity.
“In the coming years, governments will try to patch this gap by increasingly taxing companies and citizens.”
Quality of life is not made in Brussels
Despite all the changes and turbulence, Vlachynský reminds us that quality of life is not created at summits but in our immediate surroundings:
“I don’t feel any more insecure than I did 20 years ago. The quality of our life is shaped mainly by our closest environment, not global politics.”
And how not to get lost in the flood of information? The answer is simple:
“I myself struggle with information overload. I don’t condemn social media — I use it myself — and combined with AI, it pushes the possibilities of understanding the world to new heights. But we should build on a solid framework — developing our worldview through books: history, philosophy, economics… Only then will we be able to properly sort and classify facts.”
Martin Vlachynský from INESS will bring a clear-eyed perspective on how geopolitical changes impact the Slovak economy at INOFEST on September 23, 2025. In his lecture, he will demonstrate that the illusion of stability is a thing of the past and that the world is changing faster than we expected. He will raise a crucial question: how should Slovak industry adapt to a reality where key decisions are made beyond our reach? The ability to understand these changes will determine whether we merely react or actively seek our own path. The challenges are great, but the risk of ignoring them is even greater.
TEXT: Natália Stašíková, Martin Vlachynský
PHOTO: Martin Vlachynský, INOVATO
